The Final

So without any fancy analytics or expert analysis, I’ve somehow managed to pick 12/13 results so far in the knockout rounds.  But this isn’t about me for once…this is about a classic final shaping up.

Since I don’t consider the 3^rd place game worth even talking about, let’s get straight to the championship match.

Germany v. Argentina

Editor’s Pick: Germany

After thoroughly dismantling the host Brazilians in a final result that would have been near impossible to predict (from a total goals perspective at least) the Germans are, not surprisingly, the favourites.  And why not?

This is a team that has shown that it can win in every fashion imaginable.  They rolled over a few teams handily in the case of Portugal and Brazil, they gutted out defensive battles against Algeria and France, and they even came from behind for a tough draw against Ghana.  So I’m fairly certain that any scenario that they find themselves in, they’ll be prepared, because that’s what German teams usually are.

They’ve gotten excellent goalkeeping, timely goals, and they play an attractive, organized, relentless game that is constantly attacking.  It is hard to pick out a superstar on this team, although they are all supremely talented.  Thomas Mueller, if he stays healthy and carries on into two or three more World Cups is on a pace to smash his teammate’s all time goals record, and Manuel Neuer is the heavy favourite to win the tournament’s Golden Gloves.  Somewhere Oliver Kahn is smiling…if he ever smiles at all, that is.

But what of Argentina?  It is painfully difficult for me to pick against the best player of this generation (and probably at least the two previous generations as well) but Lionel Messi hasn’t faced a team this tournament that is as deep as Germany.  He showed flashes of brilliance against the Dutch, but was for large periods of the match nullified by l’Oranje.  Look for Germany to kick him repeatedly and afford him little space.  Which is too bad, because if he were allowed to run, he may just turn this into an Argentine party.  Javier Mascherano, Pablo Zabaleta, Sergio Aguero, and the rest of a world-class team must secretly feel hard done by, because they have been great.  They are just Germany when Die Mannschaft is on an incredible run of high form.

Argentina hasn’t conceded a goal since they played Nigeria, which is extremely impressive, and if they weather an early German storm of attacks and shots from all spots on the pitch, then they may hang on for extra-time.  If they can get it that far, then who knows?  But I still don’t fancy it.

Either way, it is a final featuring two squads that are entertaining and chock full of quality (the Argentina v. Netherlands match notwithstanding) and the match should play to record viewing.

I know I’ll be one of the hundreds of millions tuning in.