Knockout Stage Predictions and Stray Thoughts

So here we are.

The group stages are done, and there have definitely been some surprises.  My bracket is blown all to hell, and worse, I have no idea of how the knockout stages are going to go down.

But knowing something has never prevented me from having an opinion anyways, so here are the Round of 16 predictions as I see them.

Brazil v. Chile

Editor’s Pick: Brazil

I said it earlier in this forum, but I’ll say it again: It is hard to bet against the Brazilians.  That said, if there’s a team that could take out the hosts, it may be Chile.  They play a rampant, fast-attacking style, and they are brimming with confidence.  Add to that fans so rabid that they literally stormed the Maracana, and you may have the makings of what would be labelled an upset.  But I still think this Brazilian team is inching towards top gear, and Neymar has been lights out good so far.

Colombia v. Uruguay

Editor’s Pick: Colombia

Colombia have been scary good and have a swagger and cutting edge when they are in the opposing half that is just a load of fun to watch.  And since Uruguay has just been deprived of their top player, and arguably the best striker in the world right now, I have my doubts about how they will play without their toothy talisman.  It would be a great story if they could go deep without Suarez, but I don’t see it happening.  I’m picking Colombia, but I urge all of you, no matter who you think will win, to watch this game because there is something very special about the Colombian attack right now.

France v. Nigeria

Editor’s Pick: France

France does well in alternating World Cup years, so based on the pattern, they should get to the final this year.  It also doesn’t hurt that they are playing a calm, steady, complete game at the moment.  Nigeria was flogged by Argentina, and if the Albiceleste had any worthwhile defenders, Nigeria likely would not have even scored once, let alone the two they got in spectacular fashion.  Place your bets on France for this one (and I’m pegging them as a good team to bet on for the rest of the tournament too).

Germany v. Algeria

Editor’s Pick: Germany

Algeria is a feel good story, but it all ends in the next round.  If Germany manage to lose this game, it would be an historical upset, and historical upsets don’t happen all that often when you think about it.

Netherlands v. Mexico

Editor’s Pick: The Netherlands

Pick against the Netherlands at your own risk.  Mexico played very well against strong Croatian and Brazilian sides, and overcome dodgy refereeing to beat Cameroon.  But with Robin van Persie coming back from his suspension due to yellow card accumulation, and Arjen Robben looking terrifyingly strong off the dribble I fear that Mexico and their addictively-fun-to-watch manager are overmatched on this one.

Costa Rica v. Greece

Editor’s Pick: Costa Rica

Costa Rica are the Cinderella story of the tournament so far, winning a very tough group handily.  Greece backed in on a dubious penalty and some luck.  But this is the World Cup and these teams are probably the most evenly-matched of the Round of 16 fixtures.  For me this is a toss-up, but I just have to back the Costa Ricans to take at least one more step.

Argentina v. Switzerland

Editor’s Pick: Argentina

This is a matchup of two teams that waited until their third group stage match to really bring their “A” game.  Granted, the Swiss did play France pretty hard on match day two, but that was after France had already built a 3-0 first half lead.  Di Maria finally had a good game for Argentina last time out, but was repeatedly (and spectacularly) denied by the Nigerian goalkeeper, and Gonzalo Higuain doesn’t really look like he wants to be out there at all.  Still, I like the Argentines in this match, I just wish they would firm up their back line.

Belgium v. United States

Editor’s Pick: Belgium

Maybe it is all the pro-USA propaganda on my Twitter feed, or maybe it is all the pro-USA propaganda on the North American soccer sites, but a part of me feels like the Belgians could be in for a tough match here, despite the Red Devils having the edge in terms of talent, pace, and pedigree.  Belgium has left it late in all their matches before getting timely goals to go through the group with a perfect 3-0 record.  The USMNT?  They had a heartbreaking draw on the last play of the game against Portugal, scored a late goal to beat Ghana, and got beaten by a German team that in my opinion, wasn’t really trying all that hard.  So I’m not feeling spectacular about either one of these.  Still, one of them has to win, and I’ve been trumpeting the talent and youth of Belgium since sometime in March, so I guess I can’t be hypocrite now.

And now some reflections on the tournament to date:

• ·     Enough already, conspiracy theorists…Italy lost because they were a dreadful attacking team, Croatia went out because Mexico flat out beat their work ethic, and FIFA is not secretly rigging things so that the only teams in the final four are South American.  Now go back to whatever dark corner of your parent’s basement you typically hang out in, ogle girls half your age on The Chive, and find a chat forum where someone will actually validate your insane ramblings.
• ·     Louie Antoniou seems to be having a good time in Brazil, even if he has not had time to post anything here yet.  I’m sure it is not a function of gluttonous eating, heavy beer consumption, and football overload.  Couldn’t be.  I’m doing his tweeting by proxy, and he tells me things are very good in Brazil, and the games are intensely entertaining.
• ·     Of the sixteen team I picked to advance from the group stage, I picked seven of them exactly, and a further two advanced, just not in the position I chose them.  So 9 for 16 isn’t as bad as I feel it is, but really who in their right mind could have predicted Spain to flameout the way they did, or Costa Rica to be as good as they were, or for England to be inept and uncreative, Italy to be so woeful at scoring, and for an epic Portuguese meltdown?  Okay so those last three were kind of predictable, but still, SPAIN?!
• ·     If you had told me that Luis Suarez would again bite someone, I would have jokingly said it could happen, then I would have laughed at your stupidity.  Apparently, the stupidity of Luis Suarez far exceeds that of you or I, because we all know what happened…Barcelona will still probably pay a bunch of money to transfer him out of Liverpool.  And if there’s a team that could rehabilitate him, it is Barca.
• ·     Also on the Suarez watch, Chiellini has gone on record saying the FIFA ban is too harsh.  Not sure if that’s what he was thinking when he was chasing down a referee showing him his bare shoulder, but at least he seems to share a healthy disrespect and lack of trust for all things that the governing body does.
• ·     Watch out for James Rodriguez.  You have been warned.

One Line Analysis: Group Stage Round #1

Because I have a job outside of this blog, I don’t have large amounts of time to devote to writing here.  That said, I’ve decided to assess each game from the first round of group stage with one sentence, because that strikes a nice balance between putting some thoughts out there for discussion and limiting how much dumb crap I can say.

June 12, 2014

Brazil, 3 –Croatia, 1:

We all know what went down here, and only 50% of people are happy about it; it’s over, move on.

June 13, 2014

Mexico, 1 –Cameroon, 0:

Some controversial refereeing rendered moot by one goal; Mexico sets up nicely to advance with the win.

Spain, 1 –Netherlands, 5:

Robin van Persie isn’t actually human and Spain looked slow and old; quite the change from four years ago.

Chile, 3 –Australia, 1:

Good performance in the last 70 minutes from the Aussies, but Chile was just too good to start that match.

June 14, 2014

Colombia, 3 – Greece, 0

I didn’t really expect much from Greece and I got exactly what I expected, but this takes nothing away from a very good game by Colombia.

Uruguay, 1 –Costa Rica, 3

Officially the first upset of the tournament; Uruguay left looking for answers, and I only see more questions.

England, 1 – Italy, 2

I enjoyed that both teams went for it, and I also enjoyed watching my brother-in-law attempt to coach the Italian National Team by shouting at his television.

Cote d’Ivoire, 2 – Japan, 1

How much is Didier Drogba worth to this team? At least two come-from-behind goals apparently.

June 15, 2014

Switzerland, 2 – Ecuador, 1

Certainly a dramatic win for the Swiss, but I felt like Ecuador did enough to get at least the draw.

France, 3 – Honduras, 0

A decent, if not expected, result from Les Bleus, but historic in that it was the first use of goal-line technology in a World Cup.

Argentina, 2 - Bosnia-Herzegovina, 1

Argentina scrapes by on an early own-goal and a Lionel Messi wonderstrike; they’ll need to be better to go deep in this year’s tournament.

June 16, 2014

Germany, 4 – Portgual, 0

Thomas Muller’s embellishment makes Pepe go temporarily insane; the rest was academic after that as injuries and an invisible Ronaldo punctuated a disappointing match for the Portuguese.

Iran, 0 – Nigeria, 0

I couldn’t possibly care less about this result.

Ghana, 1 –United States, 2

The US break the curse they had against the Ghanaians and Clint Dempsey breaks his nose on a Ghanaian shinbone; this couples with Portugal’s meltdown to make 2^nd place in this group a real race.

June 17, 2014

Belgium, 2 – Algeria, 1

Belgium sticks to the game plan and both Belgian goals come from substitutes so apparently Wilmots is either a genius or a psychic.

Russia, 1 –Korea Republic, 1

A dour, boring game punctuated by one of the most almighty terrifying goalkeeper blunders you’ll ever see; as a keeper myself that sort of thing lurks around the corner of every one of my worst nightmares.

Pensive Analysis: Brazil v. Croatia

So, having had almost 24 hours to think this over, and easily 100+ opportunities to look at the most controversial highlight from the opening match of the World Cup, here's what I've got.

First, the positives.

Neymar was great, and I'm a huge Neymar doubter.  A little undisciplined on the yellow card (and if he had seen a red card for it, I would not have been shocked) but overall he didn't do much of the diving and whining and sneakiness he has been sometimes known for.  That equalizing goal was sheer accuracy from 20 yards, and he had was instrumental in Brazil going forward.  There has been talk of this World Cup being his showcase stage; I'd be very afraid if I played for Mexico or Cameroon...because Neymar looks confident and in form.

I was also very impressed with Croatia's pace, especially when they got the ball wide and tried to play in behind the Brazilian backline.  Thiago Silva is arguably the best defender in the world and more than once he looked to be at sixes and sevens with some of the crosses and darting runs from the Croatian attackers.  So, despite losing, hopefully the Croatians take some confidence away from that performance (but not too much confidence, because I don't have them advancing in my bracket).

Now, the negatives.

Fred.  What can I say, he was having a decent game until 'the incident'.  Now, the rules are pretty clear that you can't pull on a player, and (despite claims to the contrary) Lovren clearly pulled back on Fred's left shoulder.  Of course, the pull from Lovren was not nearly worthy of the manner in which Fred went to ground and remonstrated to the ref, but that's modern football for you.  I could write reams on how players are more interested now in forcing the referee into a penalty decision than trying to play on, and I'm already plenty tired of the conspiracy theories but my opinion on either really won't change anyone's mind.  It happened, and it will happen again throughout this tournament, to lots of teams.  I would have been okay with the penalty call, but also a caution to Fred for embellishment...but that's never going to happen ever.  Before things get whacky, there were some pretty rash challenges on Neymar and others that went unpunished too, so let's just say the referee didn't have a great match.

And in that vein, I have my second negative.  I for one have had pretty much enough of this 'gang confrontation' approach to disputing referee decisions.  I vaguely recall FIFA putting together a campaign to stamp that sort of nonsense out.  Six large Croatian men sprinting towards and then berating a referee a matter of inches from his face certainly helps endear the global football image to the world doesn't it.  Perhaps if some bookings started popping up from this sort of thing, then it might stop.  But then again, that's never going to happen ever either.

I've always been troubled to hear players and fans lament that 'referee decisions changed the outcome of the game' when all the players ever try to do is force the referee into a decision that would change the outcome of the game.  Fan hypocrisy on this issue is also maddening...if Modric had gone down so easily to win a penalty I imagine that my Brazilian friends would be livid and my Croatian friends pleased.

I could also opine on this for hours, but then who would bother reading that?

Anyhow, big games today.  Mexico just defeated Cameroon, so it looks like some early separation between teams in Group A.  I had the text feed going for that game, and once again sounds like some referee controversy over disallowed goals.

At least I'll have more to write on after I see the game on PVR tonight.

Grand River Soccer & the FIFA World Cup 2014: Group Stage Predictions

Ahoy there.  I’m Shawn and I spent the better part of a decade and a half playing soccer in the KW/Cambridge/Guelph area and I was lucky enough to start from day one in 2008 with Grand River Soccer.  As part of my good friend (and GRS co-founder) Louie Antoniou’s trip to Brazil for this year’s World Cup, we thought we’d run a little website to share with all you Grand River Soccer participants…and since this is on the web, I suppose the rest of the world gets a peek at it too.  Apologies for the shoddy production values and clunky web-design.

Stay tuned here for posts and analysis from myself and Louie, as well as social media updates from the man in the jungle himself (because that’s what I’m calling Louie now).  This should be fun, ridiculous, and sometimes flat out incorrect.  Hope you enjoy it.

And….

Since I can’t do anything without thinking I’m an expert, my first act as editor-in-chief for this little forum is to share my picks for the group stage.  Bear in mind that I have zero professional-level playing, coaching, or analysis experience.  I just watch a lot of soccer on television and blame my gamey right leg when I play poorly; I leg that I broke in a GRS match at that!

Please don’t use these predictions as wagering advice…you’ll lose everything.

Group A:

Winner: Brazil

Runner Up: Mexico

Why, you ask?

If there is one pick that could be considered the safest pick in the group stage it is that Brazil will win this relatively weak group, so no shocking statement in picking them first.  But I do court some controversy in excluding the Croatians from the knock-out rounds, and that is only because no other team has historically neutralized the Brazilians as well as Mexico.  If El Tri can get a result against the hosts, I think that is more than Croatia or Cameroon could muster.

Group B:

Winner: Spain

Runner Up: The Netherlands

Why, you ask?

The last two finalist from four years ago, and neither has shown me any reason why they shouldn’t waltz through this group.  Their toughest fixture will be against one another, and whoever prevails there should win the group. Chile will provide stiff resistance, but I don’t see them having the depth to get a result against either European super-power.  Australia is probably just happy to be there.

Group C:

Winner: Colombia

Runner Up: Cote D’Ivoire

Why, you ask?

Things start to go off the reservation a bit now.  Japan and Greece have had reasonably strong international tournaments the last few times out,  but I feel that both just have too much trouble scoring to be of a worry to teams as big and offensive as Colombia and the Ivory Coast.  Didier Drogba will be in what is likely his swan-song World Cup so watch for him to be a big motivator for his side, both with his leadership and his work-rate on the pitch.

Group D:

Winner: Uruguay

Runner Up: Italy

Why, you ask?

Uruguay have arguably the most dangerous player on earth right now in Luis Suarez provided he overcomes an injury scare) , and while I’m not that comfortable with Muslera in goal, I think their loads of attacking and forward-moving midfield players should tip the balance in their favour.  Likewise, Italy has attacking power that is typically unseen in the inventors of cattanaccio, and they paid for it with a slip in that vaunted defense.  In fact, only two teams in the World Cup conceded more 2 goal games to their opponents than Italy did.  Still, I imagine Italy will fall back into their old habits of getting two or three draws in the group stage to sneak into the knockouts.  From there, it’s a crapshoot for the Azzuri.

Group E:

Winner: France

Runner Up: Ecuador

Why, you ask?

After the embarrassing failure of South Africa in 2010, France has a point to prove, and I just can’t shake them from taking my winner’s spot in this group.  They close out matches pretty well, and if they can get mazy runs and good distribution from their midfield and good link up play with their front line, they should win at least two of the three games.

Ecuador defend poorly, but they have a quick incisive offense that threatens the box constantly.  The Swiss have a stalwart defense, but no real attacking threats aside from Inler.  Honduras?  Well, at least they’ll get a nice few days to spend in Brazil after the crash out pointless.

Group F:

Winner: Argentina

Runner Up: Bosnia-Herzegovina

Why, you ask?

Leo Messi is another player with a point to prove, as the knock on him and his otherwise generational game has always been the lack of international team success (but hey, what’s Cristiano Ronaldo ever won internationally either?) so enjoy seeing him in his prime this go around.  No midfield in this group will be able to contain him, and Argentina should win this group by three or more points.  Nigeria has played poorly of late and have severe liabilities in their defense, while Iran are even leakier on their backline.  Watch for Bosnia-Herzegovina to play a plain old-fashioned game of steely, hard-tackling defense and formulaic, route #1 attacking on their way to second in the group.

Group G:

Winner: Germany

Runner Up: Portugal

Why, you ask?

This is the group of death, and I suppose I should make some hyped-up remarks, but I honestly don’t see it being that much of a tough call.  The Germans seem to be what they always are in an international tournament: efficient, confident, and flat-out tough to play against.  They aren’t as young as they were last time out in South Africa, and that’s a serious disadvantage to their opponents.  Portugal is holding their breath over the fitness of Cristiano Ronaldo, as this year he has been the best player in the world from both open play and set pieces.  If he’s fit and on form, only the strong midfielders of Germany can hope to contain him.  The Americans and the boys from Ghana may beat up on each other, but I have serious doubts about either side troubling the two European nations.

If, for whatever reason, Ronaldo doesn’t play to his ability, watch for Klinsmann’s men and their diamond midfield to pip second spot.  Still, I doubt Clint Dempsey strikes much fear into the hearts of anyone’s defense anymore.

Group H:

Winner: Belgium

Runner Up: Korea Republic

Why, you ask?

I have Belgium in my final four and here’s why.  Only Spain conceded fewer goals/game in qualifying and Belgium’s well-rounded attack flows through a very steady Eden Hazard in the middle of the park.  If you look at the most-talented young footballers in the world right now, most of them are Belgian, so that inexperience may play, but then again it may not.  As for Korea, I’ll admit that I still have some love for them from their stint as host in 2006, and their frenetic, chaotic style of play is especially entertaining for me, and it is effective to boot.  Russia has problems scoring, especially once down a goal, and I’m willing to wager a nickel that Algeria don’t score a goal all tournament.

So there you have it.  Please forward all hate mail to Louie.