The Final

So without any fancy analytics or expert analysis, I’ve somehow managed to pick 12/13 results so far in the knockout rounds.  But this isn’t about me for once…this is about a classic final shaping up.

Since I don’t consider the 3^rd place game worth even talking about, let’s get straight to the championship match.

Germany v. Argentina

Editor’s Pick: Germany

After thoroughly dismantling the host Brazilians in a final result that would have been near impossible to predict (from a total goals perspective at least) the Germans are, not surprisingly, the favourites.  And why not?

This is a team that has shown that it can win in every fashion imaginable.  They rolled over a few teams handily in the case of Portugal and Brazil, they gutted out defensive battles against Algeria and France, and they even came from behind for a tough draw against Ghana.  So I’m fairly certain that any scenario that they find themselves in, they’ll be prepared, because that’s what German teams usually are.

They’ve gotten excellent goalkeeping, timely goals, and they play an attractive, organized, relentless game that is constantly attacking.  It is hard to pick out a superstar on this team, although they are all supremely talented.  Thomas Mueller, if he stays healthy and carries on into two or three more World Cups is on a pace to smash his teammate’s all time goals record, and Manuel Neuer is the heavy favourite to win the tournament’s Golden Gloves.  Somewhere Oliver Kahn is smiling…if he ever smiles at all, that is.

But what of Argentina?  It is painfully difficult for me to pick against the best player of this generation (and probably at least the two previous generations as well) but Lionel Messi hasn’t faced a team this tournament that is as deep as Germany.  He showed flashes of brilliance against the Dutch, but was for large periods of the match nullified by l’Oranje.  Look for Germany to kick him repeatedly and afford him little space.  Which is too bad, because if he were allowed to run, he may just turn this into an Argentine party.  Javier Mascherano, Pablo Zabaleta, Sergio Aguero, and the rest of a world-class team must secretly feel hard done by, because they have been great.  They are just Germany when Die Mannschaft is on an incredible run of high form.

Argentina hasn’t conceded a goal since they played Nigeria, which is extremely impressive, and if they weather an early German storm of attacks and shots from all spots on the pitch, then they may hang on for extra-time.  If they can get it that far, then who knows?  But I still don’t fancy it.

Either way, it is a final featuring two squads that are entertaining and chock full of quality (the Argentina v. Netherlands match notwithstanding) and the match should play to record viewing.

I know I’ll be one of the hundreds of millions tuning in.

Semi Final Predictions…are hard

So now that there are four.  And I basically have no idea how to pick between these four.

Here we go.

Brazil v. Germany

Editor’s Pick: Germany

Can Brazil, now without Neymar, overcome a Germany that is looking more and more efficient and in-tune?  Probably not.  I was struck in the Germany/France match at how dang well Manuel Neuer is playing; I’m pretty sure he hardly had to move for almost every save he made.  His positioning was that good.  Brazil, meanwhile, had to survive a nervy finish against a Colombian team in a game that could have easily gone the other way.  We’ve all been deprived of Neymar for the rest of the World Cup since his back is literally broken (who says soccer isn’t a contact sport?!) and although they are talent-laden, the Brazilians have been flowing so much of their game through Neymar to this point, I’m not convinced that they can either change their game or get the same production and distribution out of Oscar.  But since both of these teams are likely candidates to win this whole tournament, I could be way off.  What I will predict is that the winner of this semi-final, wins the World Cup.

Netherlands v. Argentina

Editor’s Pick: Argentina

So this is the ugly step-sister of the two semi-finals, which really just goes to prove how ridiculously good the other matchup is.  The Dutch showed uncharacteristic resistance and moxie in getting through the Costa Ricans in their quarterfinal (because historically, the Dutch are terrible in extra-time and shootouts), but with Van Gaal doing insane substitutions, and Tim Krul shit-talking all of the Costa Rican shooters they pulled it off.  As for Argentina, they had finally had Angel di Maria doing a serviceable job of supporting Lionel Messi, and now di Maria is out for at least this semi-final with a thigh strain.  Gonzalo Higuain finally showed up for twenty minutes of a game, so at least that’s sort of promising.  But Messi will probably own this game again as he makes a run at his first World Cup final appearance, and I just can’t bring myself to root against the little man.  But since both of these teams could also win the World Cup, I could be completely wrong here too.  But the winner of this match will just be fodder for either a very confident Germany or a Brazil playing in a World Cup final match at home…so either way this is probably the last win that either of these teams will enjoy at this tournament.

Quarter Final Predictions and Even More Stray Thoughts

What a few games those were.

Not to pat myself on the back too hard, but I did go 8/8 on my predictions last week.  Had I possessed even the faintest confidence in my own picks, I would have had a rather tidy payday in the world of sports betting.  But I didn’t so that of course hasn’t happened.

Onward with the quarter-final picks!

Brazil v. Colombia

Editor’s Pick: Colombia

Maybe I’m peaking on a new level of arrogance at my success in the last round, but more realistically, I’m just downright giddy over the way Colombia has been playing.  Strong in midfield, and very sharp in attack.  Brazil needed a double blessing from the woodwork to get through against Chile and overall weren’t particularly convincing.  Chile found a way to neutralize Neymar by kicking him repeatedly, and while Colombia may not do exactly the same thing, something tells me they’ll dabble in that strategy as well.  My gut tells me this is where it ends for the hosts this year.

France v. Germany

Editor’s Pick: Germany

After narrowly escaping the Algeria match, watch for the Germans to be hungrier and more precise.  France had an arguably simple game against Nigeria, even though the Nigerian goalkeeper did superhuman feats to keep it nil-nil for as long as possible.  This could be seen as France’s first real test of the World Cup, and while I don’t think Les Bleus will wilt under the pressure, I do think Germany has the edge in three out of the four areas of the field.  Germany has the stronger defense, the stronger midfield, and the stronger goalkeeper.  The French attack has been great so far, but I think it may find time and space as scarce commodities in this match.

Netherlands v. Costa Rica

Editor’s Pick: Netherlands

Having just narrowly seen off one CONCACAF team, the Dutch are poised to do it to another one, and after repeatedly coming up against tough Mexican defenders in their last match, they will likely come up against another team set to defend and counter-attack.  I fear the clock may have struck midnight on the proverbial Cinderella that is the Costa Ricans, but that cliché has always been kind of lame.  After all, even after the clock strikes midnight, Cinderella still wins in the end and gets the prince.  What was I saying before?  Right.  The Netherlands will win this game.

Argentina v. Belgium

Editor’s Pick: Argentina

They left it late again, which is an apt description of how both of these teams got to this stage.  Argentina finally broke down a surprisingly tough Swiss defense with another mazy run from Messi that ended in a perfect pass to Di Maria, who was clinical on the finish.  As for the Belgians, they triumphed in what was arguably the most exciting match of the previous round, where after finding themselves repeatedly stymied by an incredible Tim Howard, the addition of Romelo Lukaku proved the difference-maker.  For a long time I’ve had the Belgians in my final four, but I just don’t like how they stack up in midfield against Argentina.  While the Swiss swarmed Messi, the Belgian midfield will likely be more focused in attack, possibly leaving open opportunities for the Argentine talisman to break things open again.  I like Belgium, I really do, but I can’t bet against Leo Messi right now.

And now even more reflections on the tournament to date:

• ·     Tim Howard.  Wow, just wow.  As a goalkeeper it pleased me to see how well he played.  I was still happy the USA lost, because it made my bracket picks perfect for that round, but I think it is hard to argue that no goalkeeper has played even remotely close to that good in this World Cup…or a World Cup in recent memory.  Oliver Kahn in 2002 would be probably the closest comparison.
• ·     Arjen Robben isn’t popular in Mexico right now.  I’m pretty sure he doesn’t care, but still, not a particularly intelligent admission to make while the corpse of Mexico’s World Cup dream was still warm.  I loved the “Herrera for England” movement that started pretty much simultaneously with the Mexican exit from the tournament as well.
• ·     How cheated must Mauricio Pinilla feel?  He nearly broke the crossbar with the thumping strike that very nearly destroyed the championship dream of a million Brazilians.  Football is a cruel, cruel game sometimes.
• ·     Every four years I have to defend the sport of football against a bunch of casual neophytes who think the game is defined by diving.  That’s like saying that hockey is defined by mouth-breathing meatheads with no respect for human safety who also have an increased risk of CTE, depression, and drug-abuse.  Certainly a stereotype, but not 100% true.
• ·     Based on that previous point, now is probably a good time to note that while I’m writing this in affiliation with Grand River Soccer, my viewpoints do not reflect the stance of the league at large.  I’m just an out-of-shape, thirty-something goalkeeper that is jealous of my friend Louie’s excursion into Brazil.
• ·     Speaking of Louie, he was at the Colombia v. Uruguay match and actually witnessed that glorious James Rodriguez goal live in real-time.  Which doesn’t help my jealousy factor.  Also, I warned people to watch out for James Rodriguez…nothing prescient there, just an obvious statement that Uruguay chose to ignore.