Knockout Stage Predictions and Stray Thoughts

So here we are.

The group stages are done, and there have definitely been some surprises.  My bracket is blown all to hell, and worse, I have no idea of how the knockout stages are going to go down.

But knowing something has never prevented me from having an opinion anyways, so here are the Round of 16 predictions as I see them.

Brazil v. Chile

Editor’s Pick: Brazil

I said it earlier in this forum, but I’ll say it again: It is hard to bet against the Brazilians.  That said, if there’s a team that could take out the hosts, it may be Chile.  They play a rampant, fast-attacking style, and they are brimming with confidence.  Add to that fans so rabid that they literally stormed the Maracana, and you may have the makings of what would be labelled an upset.  But I still think this Brazilian team is inching towards top gear, and Neymar has been lights out good so far.

Colombia v. Uruguay

Editor’s Pick: Colombia

Colombia have been scary good and have a swagger and cutting edge when they are in the opposing half that is just a load of fun to watch.  And since Uruguay has just been deprived of their top player, and arguably the best striker in the world right now, I have my doubts about how they will play without their toothy talisman.  It would be a great story if they could go deep without Suarez, but I don’t see it happening.  I’m picking Colombia, but I urge all of you, no matter who you think will win, to watch this game because there is something very special about the Colombian attack right now.

France v. Nigeria

Editor’s Pick: France

France does well in alternating World Cup years, so based on the pattern, they should get to the final this year.  It also doesn’t hurt that they are playing a calm, steady, complete game at the moment.  Nigeria was flogged by Argentina, and if the Albiceleste had any worthwhile defenders, Nigeria likely would not have even scored once, let alone the two they got in spectacular fashion.  Place your bets on France for this one (and I’m pegging them as a good team to bet on for the rest of the tournament too).

Germany v. Algeria

Editor’s Pick: Germany

Algeria is a feel good story, but it all ends in the next round.  If Germany manage to lose this game, it would be an historical upset, and historical upsets don’t happen all that often when you think about it.

Netherlands v. Mexico

Editor’s Pick: The Netherlands

Pick against the Netherlands at your own risk.  Mexico played very well against strong Croatian and Brazilian sides, and overcome dodgy refereeing to beat Cameroon.  But with Robin van Persie coming back from his suspension due to yellow card accumulation, and Arjen Robben looking terrifyingly strong off the dribble I fear that Mexico and their addictively-fun-to-watch manager are overmatched on this one.

Costa Rica v. Greece

Editor’s Pick: Costa Rica

Costa Rica are the Cinderella story of the tournament so far, winning a very tough group handily.  Greece backed in on a dubious penalty and some luck.  But this is the World Cup and these teams are probably the most evenly-matched of the Round of 16 fixtures.  For me this is a toss-up, but I just have to back the Costa Ricans to take at least one more step.

Argentina v. Switzerland

Editor’s Pick: Argentina

This is a matchup of two teams that waited until their third group stage match to really bring their “A” game.  Granted, the Swiss did play France pretty hard on match day two, but that was after France had already built a 3-0 first half lead.  Di Maria finally had a good game for Argentina last time out, but was repeatedly (and spectacularly) denied by the Nigerian goalkeeper, and Gonzalo Higuain doesn’t really look like he wants to be out there at all.  Still, I like the Argentines in this match, I just wish they would firm up their back line.

Belgium v. United States

Editor’s Pick: Belgium

Maybe it is all the pro-USA propaganda on my Twitter feed, or maybe it is all the pro-USA propaganda on the North American soccer sites, but a part of me feels like the Belgians could be in for a tough match here, despite the Red Devils having the edge in terms of talent, pace, and pedigree.  Belgium has left it late in all their matches before getting timely goals to go through the group with a perfect 3-0 record.  The USMNT?  They had a heartbreaking draw on the last play of the game against Portugal, scored a late goal to beat Ghana, and got beaten by a German team that in my opinion, wasn’t really trying all that hard.  So I’m not feeling spectacular about either one of these.  Still, one of them has to win, and I’ve been trumpeting the talent and youth of Belgium since sometime in March, so I guess I can’t be hypocrite now.

And now some reflections on the tournament to date:

• ·     Enough already, conspiracy theorists…Italy lost because they were a dreadful attacking team, Croatia went out because Mexico flat out beat their work ethic, and FIFA is not secretly rigging things so that the only teams in the final four are South American.  Now go back to whatever dark corner of your parent’s basement you typically hang out in, ogle girls half your age on The Chive, and find a chat forum where someone will actually validate your insane ramblings.
• ·     Louie Antoniou seems to be having a good time in Brazil, even if he has not had time to post anything here yet.  I’m sure it is not a function of gluttonous eating, heavy beer consumption, and football overload.  Couldn’t be.  I’m doing his tweeting by proxy, and he tells me things are very good in Brazil, and the games are intensely entertaining.
• ·     Of the sixteen team I picked to advance from the group stage, I picked seven of them exactly, and a further two advanced, just not in the position I chose them.  So 9 for 16 isn’t as bad as I feel it is, but really who in their right mind could have predicted Spain to flameout the way they did, or Costa Rica to be as good as they were, or for England to be inept and uncreative, Italy to be so woeful at scoring, and for an epic Portuguese meltdown?  Okay so those last three were kind of predictable, but still, SPAIN?!
• ·     If you had told me that Luis Suarez would again bite someone, I would have jokingly said it could happen, then I would have laughed at your stupidity.  Apparently, the stupidity of Luis Suarez far exceeds that of you or I, because we all know what happened…Barcelona will still probably pay a bunch of money to transfer him out of Liverpool.  And if there’s a team that could rehabilitate him, it is Barca.
• ·     Also on the Suarez watch, Chiellini has gone on record saying the FIFA ban is too harsh.  Not sure if that’s what he was thinking when he was chasing down a referee showing him his bare shoulder, but at least he seems to share a healthy disrespect and lack of trust for all things that the governing body does.
• ·     Watch out for James Rodriguez.  You have been warned.