Friday, June 6, 2014

Grand River Soccer & the FIFA World Cup 2014: Group Stage Predictions

Ahoy there.  I’m Shawn and I spent the better part of a decade and a half playing soccer in the KW/Cambridge/Guelph area and I was lucky enough to start from day one in 2008 with Grand River Soccer.  As part of my good friend (and GRS co-founder) Louie Antoniou’s trip to Brazil for this year’s World Cup, we thought we’d run a little website to share with all you Grand River Soccer participants…and since this is on the web, I suppose the rest of the world gets a peek at it too.  Apologies for the shoddy production values and clunky web-design.

Stay tuned here for posts and analysis from myself and Louie, as well as social media updates from the man in the jungle himself (because that’s what I’m calling Louie now).  This should be fun, ridiculous, and sometimes flat out incorrect.  Hope you enjoy it.

And….

Since I can’t do anything without thinking I’m an expert, my first act as editor-in-chief for this little forum is to share my picks for the group stage.  Bear in mind that I have zero professional-level playing, coaching, or analysis experience.  I just watch a lot of soccer on television and blame my gamey right leg when I play poorly; I leg that I broke in a GRS match at that!
Please don’t use these predictions as wagering advice…you’ll lose everything.

Group A:
Winner: Brazil
Runner Up: Mexico

Why, you ask?
If there is one pick that could be considered the safest pick in the group stage it is that Brazil will win this relatively weak group, so no shocking statement in picking them first.  But I do court some controversy in excluding the Croatians from the knock-out rounds, and that is only because no other team has historically neutralized the Brazilians as well as Mexico.  If El Tri can get a result against the hosts, I think that is more than Croatia or Cameroon could muster.

Group B:
Winner: Spain
Runner Up: The Netherlands

Why, you ask?
The last two finalist from four years ago, and neither has shown me any reason why they shouldn’t waltz through this group.  Their toughest fixture will be against one another, and whoever prevails there should win the group. Chile will provide stiff resistance, but I don’t see them having the depth to get a result against either European super-power.  Australia is probably just happy to be there.

Group C:
Winner: Colombia
Runner Up: Cote D’Ivoire

Why, you ask?
Things start to go off the reservation a bit now.  Japan and Greece have had reasonably strong international tournaments the last few times out,  but I feel that both just have too much trouble scoring to be of a worry to teams as big and offensive as Colombia and the Ivory Coast.  Didier Drogba will be in what is likely his swan-song World Cup so watch for him to be a big motivator for his side, both with his leadership and his work-rate on the pitch.

Group D:
Winner: Uruguay
Runner Up: Italy

Why, you ask?
Uruguay have arguably the most dangerous player on earth right now in Luis Suarez provided he overcomes an injury scare) , and while I’m not that comfortable with Muslera in goal, I think their loads of attacking and forward-moving midfield players should tip the balance in their favour.  Likewise, Italy has attacking power that is typically unseen in the inventors of cattanaccio, and they paid for it with a slip in that vaunted defense.  In fact, only two teams in the World Cup conceded more 2 goal games to their opponents than Italy did.  Still, I imagine Italy will fall back into their old habits of getting two or three draws in the group stage to sneak into the knockouts.  From there, it’s a crapshoot for the Azzuri.

Group E:
Winner: France
Runner Up: Ecuador

Why, you ask?
After the embarrassing failure of South Africa in 2010, France has a point to prove, and I just can’t shake them from taking my winner’s spot in this group.  They close out matches pretty well, and if they can get mazy runs and good distribution from their midfield and good link up play with their front line, they should win at least two of the three games.
Ecuador defend poorly, but they have a quick incisive offense that threatens the box constantly.  The Swiss have a stalwart defense, but no real attacking threats aside from Inler.  Honduras?  Well, at least they’ll get a nice few days to spend in Brazil after the crash out pointless.

Group F:
Winner: Argentina
Runner Up: Bosnia-Herzegovina

Why, you ask?
Leo Messi is another player with a point to prove, as the knock on him and his otherwise generational game has always been the lack of international team success (but hey, what’s Cristiano Ronaldo ever won internationally either?) so enjoy seeing him in his prime this go around.  No midfield in this group will be able to contain him, and Argentina should win this group by three or more points.  Nigeria has played poorly of late and have severe liabilities in their defense, while Iran are even leakier on their backline.  Watch for Bosnia-Herzegovina to play a plain old-fashioned game of steely, hard-tackling defense and formulaic, route #1 attacking on their way to second in the group.

Group G:
Winner: Germany
Runner Up: Portugal

Why, you ask?
This is the group of death, and I suppose I should make some hyped-up remarks, but I honestly don’t see it being that much of a tough call.  The Germans seem to be what they always are in an international tournament: efficient, confident, and flat-out tough to play against.  They aren’t as young as they were last time out in South Africa, and that’s a serious disadvantage to their opponents.  Portugal is holding their breath over the fitness of Cristiano Ronaldo, as this year he has been the best player in the world from both open play and set pieces.  If he’s fit and on form, only the strong midfielders of Germany can hope to contain him.  The Americans and the boys from Ghana may beat up on each other, but I have serious doubts about either side troubling the two European nations.

If, for whatever reason, Ronaldo doesn’t play to his ability, watch for Klinsmann’s men and their diamond midfield to pip second spot.  Still, I doubt Clint Dempsey strikes much fear into the hearts of anyone’s defense anymore.

Group H:
Winner: Belgium
Runner Up: Korea Republic

Why, you ask?
I have Belgium in my final four and here’s why.  Only Spain conceded fewer goals/game in qualifying and Belgium’s well-rounded attack flows through a very steady Eden Hazard in the middle of the park.  If you look at the most-talented young footballers in the world right now, most of them are Belgian, so that inexperience may play, but then again it may not.  As for Korea, I’ll admit that I still have some love for them from their stint as host in 2006, and their frenetic, chaotic style of play is especially entertaining for me, and it is effective to boot.  Russia has problems scoring, especially once down a goal, and I’m willing to wager a nickel that Algeria don’t score a goal all tournament.


So there you have it.  Please forward all hate mail to Louie.

No comments:

Post a Comment